The broker says this ASX 200 bank stock could rise by around 70 per cent

JUDO CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED (ASX: JDO) shares are having a tough year.

Since the start of 2026, ASX 200 bank stocks have lost 20% of their value.

Could this be a buying opportunity? According to Ord Minnett analysts, the answer is yes.

What is the broker saying about this ASX 200 bank stock?

Ard Money is taking a close look at Judo after it completed a major note securitization issue from the specialist SME lender.

The broker highlights that Judo raised $750 million through the issue, which was raised from $500 million due to strong demand.

It was backed by loans from ASX 200 bank stocks and attracted the support of a range of investors, including local and offshore investors, superannuation funds, fixed income and credit funds, and bank balance sheet buyers. Ord Minnett said:

Jodo Capital ( JDO ) has bolstered its balance sheet with its debt-backed $750 million note securitization issue (up from $500 million due to strong demand), sending shares of the lender to small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) up more than 12 percent on the day.

Happily, the issue was priced at 171 basis points over the one-month bank bill swap rate. This compares with the 273 basis points margin achieved in Judo’s first transaction in September 2023.

Balance sheet concerns eased.

One of the main reasons Ord Minnett is positive on the transaction is that it mitigates concerns about a potential equity raise.

The broker estimates that the securitization boosted Judo’s pro forma common equity tier one capital ratio to 13.2% as of March 31, compared with a CET1 ratio of 12.6%.

It also forecasts a CET1 ratio of 12.6% as of June 30, which it believes is comfortably above the 12% level that investors would find acceptable.

In addition, Ord Minnett said the strong demand for the issue suggests that judo has opened up a new investment avenue for investment.

While this funding is more expensive than wholesale funding, the broker believes the benefits of releasing regulatory capital and transferring credit risk to third-party investors should support higher returns on equity over time.

Buy rating maintained.

Ord Minnett maintained its Buy rating and $2.40 price target on Judo, according to the note.

Based on the ASX 200 bank stock’s last close price of $1.43, this implies a potential upside of around 70% over the next 12 months.

The broker concluded:

Judo is highly exposed to broader economic conditions and its performance will be more volatile than most of its major competitors. It is thus strongly leveraged for any Middle East conflict resolution and return to calm energy markets that would have potentially jeopardized the asset quality of its SME loan book.

We forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for EPS of 40% and view Judo as an attractive investment option over the medium term. This leads Ord Minnett to maintain its $2.40 target price on Judo and reiterate our Buy recommendation.