Mortgage stress is at a post-GFC high.

July 23, 2026

Three interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this year have pushed Australian mortgage rates to near record highs globally.

Chart from Justin Fabo on Antipodean Macro

As a result, mortgage stress has reached its highest level since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), according to Roy Morgan Research.

In the three months to June, Roy Morgan estimated that 30.3% of households were at risk of mortgage stress, which equated to 1,606,000 people – up from 68,000 a month earlier.

The number of Australians ‘at risk’ of mortgage stress rose to 115,000 a year ago after the RBA cut interest rates in May 2025 (-0.25%) and August 2025 (-0.25%), but then rebounded in February 2026 (+0.25%), March 2026 (+26%) and again in March 2026 (+0.25%).

As a result of these changes, the interest rate in June 2026 was 4.35%, up 0.5% from a year ago in June 2025 (3.85%).

The latest financial markets estimates show a 68% chance of a further 25 bp rate hike by the end of the year, which would take the official cash rate to 4.6% and further add to mortgage pressures:

Roy Morgan explains it. “Uses a conservative forecasting model, essentially assuming that all factors other than interest rates remain the same”. However, noted Roy Morgan. “Unemployment is the main factor that has the greatest impact on income and mortgage stress”.

Australia’s unemployment rate has reached its highest level since late 2021. This is likely to increase amid rising interest rates, a slowing economy, the rollout of AI and continued strong immigration.

Therefore, if unemployment continues to rise, mortgage stress will increase further.

First home buyers who have recently purchased using the Albanian government’s 5% deposit scheme are most at risk of stress, as they have taken on large amounts of debt (LVRs of up to 95%) and have seen mortgage rates rise and house prices fall in major capital cities.