Australian dollar receives Japanese support.

By Abdul Abdul

July 4, 2026

DXY has resistance support.

Australian dollar receives Japanese support.

AUD helped by JPY intervention.

Oil and gold diverge, suggesting the Warsh test is bullish.

Base metals are melting.

Mining charts remain ugly.

EM stocks are hanging on, casting doubt on the DXY rally.

Junk is calm.

The Treasury curve is still flat as the Warsh test continues.

Stocks don’t like it.

Part of the Warsh test is continued weakness in the JPY. Maximum relief efforts are underway.

Japanese officials are abandoning their habit of telegraphing intervention threats, instead signaling a more targeted campaign to squeeze speculators, two sources familiar with the matter said.

Sources said the Ministry of Finance (MOF) could take a sudden step to liquidate speculative yen positions, departing from a calibrated clampdown before previous rounds of intervention. Officials are also avoiding proposing a specific “line in the sand” exchange rate level that would trigger action.

As I explained earlier, the BOJ is dealing with a slow-moving crisis as it manages capital outflows, rising rates and doubts about government solvency and a depreciating currency.

Relief in oil prices will help, but ongoing trends suggest a strong structural pull on the JPY.

I don’t believe the markets have the strength to break the BOJ and MOF without oil. But inventions will continue. Expect the AUD to pop whenever they do. come on

Suddenly, American jobs don’t seem so hot either. Non-farm payrolls +57k (vs. +113k forecast), driven by a 720k labor force drop (25-34 age group participation -1.6pp), signaling structural labor market risk beyond cyclical weakness.

In June, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose 13 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $37.64. Over the year, average hourly earnings rose 3.5 percent. In June, average hourly earnings for private sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose 7 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $32.38.

That sounds like AI sog to me. If this continues, the Warsh test is going to reverse the fsst and the AUD will rise again.