Economic Week ahead – Macrobecus

October 5, 2025

By Trent Saunders, Economist at CBA

The rba Left the Cash Rate on Hold at 3.60%, As Expected, But the Accompanying Statement Carried A More Hawkish Tone.

We crystallised some of the upside Risk to Inflation in our Forecasts this week, upgrading our estimate for trimmed-mean inflation in Q3 from 0.7% to 0.8%/QTR.
This uplift in our near-Term Inflation Forecast, Together with the shift in tone from the RBA, LED us to Push back our call for the next cash rate to February 2026.
The us government shut down for the first time in Nearly Seven Years. If the shutdown contains into the weekend, the cricket non-party payrolls data will not be released.
Domestically, the week ahead will provide westpac-Melbourne Institute Consuration Consuration for October.
Offshore, we have the fom meeting minutes, the RBNZ Official Cash Rate Decision, Labour Cash Earnings for Japan and Net Employment Change for Canada.

It was another busy week Locally. The rba Left the Cash Rate on Hold at 3.60%, As Expected, But the Accompanying Statement Carried A More Hawkish Tone.

This Continue Into Governor Bullock’s Press Conference, where shehlighted Obllowing Inflation Risks Following the Strger-Chance-Expected August August August Monthly CPI Print.