A perfect storm for Ausi Housing

October 4, 2025

With the release of the latest ABS Building Approvals data for August, it was revealed that dwelling approvals had fallen by 6.0% on a month-on-month basis but were still up 3.0% year-on-year.

However, looking at a chart of trend approvals shows they had rolled over recently. This provides a concerning sign that there may not be much room for growth in the current homebuilding cycle without an external positive catalyst.

There was already a broad consensus that the Albanese government would come up well short of its target of building 1.2 million homes over the 5 years from June 2024 onwards. But this recent data is a concerning sign that home construction may end up so weak relative to population growth that the nation’s housing shortage may persist to at least the mid-2030s.