Look, I know that traders sometimes think that their work is more and more. And the media has to take advantage of the people. And political strategies have faced genetically abused. But here a little rational analysis is probably valuable.
The clear background of release this morning is somewhat unusual fluctuations in the equity market,[1] And some fears that the economy may eventually get the recession that I and others have been expecting for so long-though not too quietly, because Q1 contraction will mostly be due to the increase in imports from the income of the front. The statement has withdrawn the question of how easily the feed can be easily reduced, even if inflation is still a little problem, because unemployment is 4.1 % at the nasal level and in the stock crapper (technical term).
Gaz people, take a cold pill.
Similarly, do not identify the tone on inflation yet. The expectations in today’s data were for +0.31 % and +0.30 % at the headline CPI. The original prints were +0.22 % and a delightful +0.23 % on the cover.
Certainly, the chart shows that it is Certainly Better than last month! And this is even better than the average of the last two months (I said last month that you probably should be the average between December and January data). But… there is a slight hurry in the adoption of victory. Here is Median CPI (last point, as usual, today is my estimate).
If this is 0.29 % meter/meter according to my estimates, we are at 3.5 % run rate. And from here, we have gone through the last six months. Oh, and while the Y/Y -core is low at 3.1 %, it is at 3.5 % compared to the last three and the last six months. We live in the middle of 3s.
Criminal cars, health insurance, home away from home, pharmaceuticals and hospital services were used behind last month’s growing cases. Only used cars (+0.88 % m/m) contributed a lot this month. On the other hand, the aircraft dropped -4 % meter/meter. There are Major 8 categories.
But hope is that there is no category that looks out of control on the basis of AY/Y. This is also the theory of despair, because it speaks of a vast – if not especially – inflation that is still coming out. The basic equipment this month was still -0.1 % Y/Y, but the basic services are less than 4.3 % to 4.1 % Y/Y. Pharmaceutical prices, whose history only increased their biggest monthly as the drug makers tried to lick them before the Trump administration forced them to reduce prices, increased only +0.18 %/meter this month. Both primary rent and owners’ equal rent was +0.281 % meter/meter. They are also settled according to the schedule.
“Settlement” is what is going on in shelter. And this is once again good news and bad news. We have seen a lot of predictions over the past two years, which has demanded to return inflation to the trend permanently depends on the assumption that we have reduced rent. Latest rent in A Something The city will become a broad -based trend in all shelters. But this is not for two reasons. On the fare, costs for landlords continue to increase (this is the basis of our model in the previous chart). And by the purchase of the house, there is still a huge loss in the houses available for sale.
Although it may change – it seems that it is changing to Washington, DC, but people who leave Washington still need homes elsewhere. A lot ofThere is no sign that the shelter will lift a heavy lifting to bring inflation back to 2 %. Neither is the superficial, though in this month it was +0.22 % meter/meter and usually looks better than that.
But none of this seems interesting. None of this seems to be the lap of inflation -related feed victory. Even in sustainable investment, inflation inflation index looks like it is settling, and like all that we have seen, it is settled higher than the pre -quad.
And when we’re talking about division, here’s another in which I didn’t run in a while. This is the distribution of Y/Y changes through the lowest level CPI components. In the middle, the growing growing incident is clearly housing. There is a cluster between 1 % and 4 %. But look at this big left tail. 20 % basket is actually deleting, y/y.
The interesting thing about this column on the left is that it is a whole bunch of small things. Breakfast grain pasta “other meat” (tremor). Potato tomato soup snack window cover. Poor shirts of men. Audio Devices. In other words, many things that are so small, consumers don’t really feel so much of them and therefore they don’t really affect their sense of inflation. But they see eggs.
So this is the good news… there are a lot of things being developed in it… but the bad news is that there are many of these things that mean. You will see that some of the categories I just listed are still in the defense … but also the things that are rising in prices when the revenue begins to target. The largest single piece in deflation is still the new cars, which is 4.4 % weight or more. Unfortunately, when prices are hit by auto parts and slows down the import of non -American vehicles, it will not be in defense.
So let’s wrap it up.
In the conspiracy nuts, it would say that Trump had cooked that number, because something was expected better than expected about something that was promised his campaign. But this is normal change, and most importantly, inflation data appears to be changing at 3.5 or more, Ago The effects of prices are kicking. Nearly -term effects on inflation are certainly upwards. Peace in Israel and Ukraine, if it comes, can cause a small loss to energy prices, but its major impact is being re -released, which will take some time. But beyond the peace effect, something good. Near period In addition to the trends but also the trends (relatively small) effect, some really near nearby trends. Inflation is settled.
The funny thing is, I don’t think the feed cares. I think they are satisfied Enough With progress on inflation, and they still think that recession causes (they do not) so that they can feel that they can focus on the mandate growth section for now.
[1] A ‘crash’, or ‘freefall’, or observers named some more appeal that the last time we saw 10 % of the bridgeback could not remember. If you see an equal weight, or a 60-40 mixture of stocks and bonds, only about 6 %. If it is guaranteed “what you say to Americans who can’t retire now because they see their retirement accounts falling down”, my answer would be, “I would say that if these Americans probably should not be invested in stock, they are due to delay in retirement.”
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